A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
